July 10, 2020
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Danny Henry | Makwan Amirkhani |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 997 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Makwan Amirkhani's 4-fight experience advantage (8 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Makwan Amirkhani for the expected result. Had Danny Henry pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Danny Henry | Makwan Amirkhani |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 000 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Danny Henry | Makwan Amirkhani |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:15 | 3:15 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 047 | 1 238 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +47 |
Makwan Amirkhani earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:15, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Danny Henry | Makwan Amirkhani |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 16 | 6 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 6 | 2 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 012 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Danny Henry lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Makwan Amirkhani's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Danny Henry | Makwan Amirkhani |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:47 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 943 | 1 253 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Makwan Amirkhani controlled Danny Henry on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:47 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Danny Henry | Makwan Amirkhani |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 483 | 252 |
| Activity ELO | 1 007 | 1 104 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +22 |
Makwan Amirkhani demonstrated standard activity with 252 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Makwan Amirkhani capitalized on this activity level, while Danny Henry's 483-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Danny Henry | Makwan Amirkhani |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 007 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Makwan Amirkhani started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Danny Henry is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Danny Henry | Makwan Amirkhani |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 000 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.