July 21, 2018
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Danny Roberts | David Zawada |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 078 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Danny Roberts's 6-fight experience advantage (7 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Danny Roberts for the expected result. Had David Zawada pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Danny Roberts | David Zawada |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 056 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Danny Roberts | David Zawada |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 167 | 994 |
| ELO Change | +6 | -6 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Danny Roberts receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Danny Roberts | David Zawada |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 45 | 33 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 87 | 64 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 68 | 63 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 088 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Danny Roberts edged the striking exchanges with 45 vs 33 significant strikes. Danny Roberts capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Danny Roberts | David Zawada |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 8:46 | 2:42 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 30 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 093 | 949 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -51 |
Danny Roberts controlled David Zawada on the ground with 0 takedowns, 8:46 of control time, 30 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Danny Roberts | David Zawada |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 127 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 116 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -16 |
Danny Roberts demonstrated solid activity levels with 127 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Danny Roberts capitalized on this activity level, while David Zawada's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Danny Roberts | David Zawada |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 068 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -18 |
Danny Roberts extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. David Zawada is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Danny Roberts | David Zawada |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 056 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.