May 6, 2022
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Danny Roberts | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 25 |
| Experience Gap | -13 | 13 |
| Experience ELO | 1 024 | 1 247 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Francisco Trinaldo's 13-fight experience advantage (25 vs 12 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Francisco Trinaldo for the expected result. Had Danny Roberts pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Danny Roberts | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 040 | 1 164 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Danny Roberts | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 125 | 1 347 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Francisco Trinaldo earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Danny Roberts | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 36 | 80 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 118 | 124 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 44 | 91 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 041 | 1 251 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Francisco Trinaldo controlled the striking exchanges with 91 vs 44 total strikes, 80 vs 36 significant strikes, 64.5% vs 30.5% accuracy. Francisco Trinaldo capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Danny Roberts | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:39 | 4:21 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 1 043 | 1 247 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Francisco Trinaldo controlled Danny Roberts on the ground with 4:21 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Danny Roberts | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 203 | 196 |
| Activity ELO | 1 107 | 1 366 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +10 |
Francisco Trinaldo demonstrated standard activity with 196 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Francisco Trinaldo capitalized on this activity level, while Danny Roberts's 203-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Danny Roberts | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 060 | 1 234 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +15 |
Francisco Trinaldo extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Danny Roberts is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Danny Roberts | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 040 | 1 164 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.