December 9, 2015
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Danny Roberts | Nathan Coy |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Danny Roberts | Nathan Coy |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Danny Roberts | Nathan Coy |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:46 | 2:46 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 074 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +74 | -42 |
Danny Roberts earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:46, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Danny Roberts | Nathan Coy |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 11 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 19 | 27 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 8 | 14 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Nathan Coy controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (11 vs 6). However, since Nathan Coy lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Danny Roberts's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Danny Roberts | Nathan Coy |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:43 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 042 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Danny Roberts edged out Nathan Coy on the ground with 0 takedowns, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Danny Roberts | Nathan Coy |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Danny Roberts demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Danny Roberts capitalized on this activity level, while Nathan Coy's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Danny Roberts | Nathan Coy |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 023 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Danny Roberts started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Nathan Coy is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Danny Roberts | Nathan Coy |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

