December 8, 2017
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Darrell Horcher | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 991 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Scott Holtzman's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Scott Holtzman for the expected result. Had Darrell Horcher pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Darrell Horcher | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 986 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Darrell Horcher | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 963 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Scott Holtzman earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Darrell Horcher | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 36 | 49 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 63 | 82 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 60 | 173 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 961 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Scott Holtzman dominated the striking exchanges with 173 vs 60 total strikes, 49 vs 36 significant strikes. Scott Holtzman capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Darrell Horcher | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 7 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 11 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:40 | 9:49 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 24 |
| Ground ELO | 928 | 1 127 |
| ELO Change | -90 | +90 |
Scott Holtzman dominated Darrell Horcher on the ground with 7 vs 1 takedowns, 9:49 of control time, 24 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Darrell Horcher | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 168 | 232 |
| Activity ELO | 989 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +24 |
Scott Holtzman demonstrated standard activity with 232 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Scott Holtzman capitalized on this activity level, while Darrell Horcher's 168-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Darrell Horcher | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 991 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +25 |
Scott Holtzman extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Darrell Horcher is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Darrell Horcher | Scott Holtzman |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 986 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.