October 24, 2014
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Darren Elkins | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 130 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Darren Elkins's 6-fight experience advantage (11 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Darren Elkins for the expected result. Had Lucas Martins pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Darren Elkins | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 087 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Darren Elkins | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 226 | 1 188 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Darren Elkins receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Darren Elkins | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 47 | 26 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 154 | 82 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 133 | 41 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 179 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -50 |
Darren Elkins dominated the striking exchanges with 133 vs 41 total strikes, 47 vs 26 significant strikes. Darren Elkins capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Darren Elkins | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 14 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 8:03 | 0:26 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 238 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | +67 | -67 |
Darren Elkins controlled Lucas Martins on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 8:03 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Darren Elkins | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 273 | 101 |
| Activity ELO | 1 175 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Darren Elkins demonstrated standard activity with 273 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Darren Elkins capitalized on this activity level, while Lucas Martins's 101-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Darren Elkins | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 120 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -18 |
Darren Elkins started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Lucas Martins is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Darren Elkins | Lucas Martins |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 087 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.