October 13, 2023
Featherweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Darren Elkins | TJ Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 28 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 20 | -20 |
| Experience ELO | 1 122 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Darren Elkins's 20-fight experience advantage (28 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Darren Elkins for the expected result. Had TJ Brown pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Darren Elkins | TJ Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 087 | 965 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Darren Elkins | TJ Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:23 | 2:23 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 235 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -18 |
Darren Elkins earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 2:23, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. TJ Brown was submitted.
| Metric | Darren Elkins | TJ Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 15 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 33 | 50 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 95 | 45 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 051 | 915 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Darren Elkins dominated the striking exchanges with 95 vs 45 total strikes. Darren Elkins capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Darren Elkins | TJ Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 8:09 | 1:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 235 | 900 |
| ELO Change | +59 | -59 |
Darren Elkins dominated TJ Brown on the ground with 5 vs 2 takedowns, 8:09 of control time, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Darren Elkins | TJ Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 315 | 182 |
| Activity ELO | 1 205 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
Darren Elkins demonstrated standard activity with 315 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Darren Elkins capitalized on this activity level, while TJ Brown's 182-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Darren Elkins | TJ Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 145 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -13 |
Darren Elkins started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. TJ Brown is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Darren Elkins | TJ Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 085 | 965 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

