April 29, 2022
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Darren Elkins | Tristan Connelly |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 26 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 23 | -23 |
| Experience ELO | 1 134 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Darren Elkins's 23-fight experience advantage (26 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Darren Elkins for the expected result. Had Tristan Connelly pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Darren Elkins | Tristan Connelly |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 094 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Darren Elkins | Tristan Connelly |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 248 | 991 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Darren Elkins earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Darren Elkins | Tristan Connelly |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 75 | 66 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 151 | 117 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 165 | 106 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 064 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Darren Elkins dominated the striking exchanges with 165 vs 106 total strikes, 75 vs 66 significant strikes. Darren Elkins capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Darren Elkins | Tristan Connelly |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:52 | 0:58 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 226 | 935 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Darren Elkins controlled Tristan Connelly on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 7:52 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Darren Elkins | Tristan Connelly |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 133 | 371 |
| Activity ELO | 1 222 | 991 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -10 |
Darren Elkins demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Darren Elkins capitalized on this activity level, while Tristan Connelly's 371-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Darren Elkins | Tristan Connelly |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 156 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -13 |
Darren Elkins started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tristan Connelly is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Darren Elkins | Tristan Connelly |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 092 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.