October 17, 2019
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Darren Stewart | Deron Winn |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 966 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -44 |
Darren Stewart's 7-fight experience advantage (9 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Darren Stewart for the expected result. Had Deron Winn pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Darren Stewart | Deron Winn |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 014 | 996 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Darren Stewart | Deron Winn |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 142 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | +8 | -8 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Darren Stewart receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Darren Stewart | Deron Winn |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 57 | 29 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 119 | 53 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 77 | 66 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 140 | 996 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Darren Stewart controlled the striking exchanges with 57 vs 29 significant strikes. Darren Stewart capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Darren Stewart | Deron Winn |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 6 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 15 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:30 | 8:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 12 | 11 |
| Ground ELO | 928 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Darren Stewart did not secure a significant ground advantage against Deron Winn on the ground with 1 takedown, 0:30 of control time, 12 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Darren Stewart | Deron Winn |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 132 | 118 |
| Activity ELO | 1 087 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -19 |
Darren Stewart demonstrated solid activity levels with 132 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Darren Stewart capitalized on this activity level, while Deron Winn's 118-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Darren Stewart | Deron Winn |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 027 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -22 |
Darren Stewart extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Deron Winn is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Darren Stewart | Deron Winn |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 014 | 996 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.