September 3, 2021
Middleweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Darren Till | Derek Brunson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 19 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 229 | 1 337 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Derek Brunson's 8-fight experience advantage (19 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Derek Brunson for the expected result. Had Darren Till pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Darren Till | Derek Brunson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 073 | 1 182 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Darren Till | Derek Brunson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:13 | 2:13 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 313 | 1 567 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +30 |
Derek Brunson earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 2:13, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Darren Till was submitted.
| Metric | Darren Till | Derek Brunson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 26 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 50 | 84 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 28 | 101 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 241 | 1 382 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Derek Brunson dominated the striking exchanges with 101 vs 28 total strikes, 41 vs 26 significant strikes. Derek Brunson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Darren Till | Derek Brunson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:04 | 7:23 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 29 |
| Ground ELO | 1 096 | 1 524 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Derek Brunson dominated Darren Till on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 7:23 of control time, 29 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Darren Till | Derek Brunson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 406 | 168 |
| Activity ELO | 1 273 | 1 359 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +33 |
Derek Brunson demonstrated solid activity levels with 168 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Derek Brunson capitalized on this activity level, while Darren Till's 406-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Darren Till | Derek Brunson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 5 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 121 | 1 258 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +30 |
Derek Brunson continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Darren Till's now at 0.
| Metric | Darren Till | Derek Brunson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 064 | 1 174 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

