March 15, 2019
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Darren Till | Jorge Masvidal |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 226 | 1 246 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Jorge Masvidal's 8-fight experience advantage (16 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jorge Masvidal for the expected result. Had Darren Till pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Darren Till | Jorge Masvidal |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 082 | 1 102 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Darren Till | Jorge Masvidal |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:05 | 3:05 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 336 | 1 538 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +59 |
Jorge Masvidal gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Darren Till | Jorge Masvidal |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 21 | 35 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 43 | 72 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 22 | 41 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 277 | 1 535 |
| ELO Change | -63 | +63 |
Jorge Masvidal controlled the striking exchanges with 35 vs 21 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Jorge Masvidal capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Darren Till | Jorge Masvidal |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:55 | 0:47 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 121 | 1 344 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Jorge Masvidal landed 1 knockdown followed by 1 ground strike. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Darren Till | Jorge Masvidal |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 190 | 497 |
| Activity ELO | 1 282 | 1 431 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +13 |
Jorge Masvidal demonstrated extended layoff with 497 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Jorge Masvidal capitalized on this activity level, while Darren Till's 190-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Darren Till | Jorge Masvidal |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 116 | 1 154 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +24 |
Jorge Masvidal started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Darren Till is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Darren Till | Jorge Masvidal |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 073 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.