July 28, 2023
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Darrius Flowers | Jake Matthews |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 18 |
| Experience Gap | -17 | 17 |
| Experience ELO | 982 | 1 175 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Jake Matthews's 17-fight experience advantage (18 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jake Matthews for the expected result. Had Darrius Flowers pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Darrius Flowers | Jake Matthews |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 984 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Darrius Flowers | Jake Matthews |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:37 | 2:37 |
| Win Type ELO | 984 | 1 271 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +25 |
Jake Matthews earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:37, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Darrius Flowers was submitted.
| Metric | Darrius Flowers | Jake Matthews |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 36 | 60 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 64 | 101 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 41 | 71 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 977 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Jake Matthews controlled the striking exchanges with 71 vs 41 total strikes, 60 vs 36 significant strikes. Jake Matthews capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Darrius Flowers | Jake Matthews |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:03 | 1:15 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 11 |
| Ground ELO | 920 | 1 165 |
| ELO Change | -80 | +80 |
Jake Matthews dominated Darrius Flowers on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:15 of control time, 11 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Darrius Flowers | Jake Matthews |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 224 |
| Activity ELO | 989 | 1 200 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +13 |
Jake Matthews demonstrated standard activity with 224 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Jake Matthews capitalized on this activity level, while Darrius Flowers's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Darrius Flowers | Jake Matthews |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 985 | 1 127 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +16 |
Jake Matthews started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Darrius Flowers is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Darrius Flowers | Jake Matthews |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 984 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.