February 9, 2024
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Darrius Flowers | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 28 |
| Experience Gap | -26 | 26 |
| Experience ELO | 951 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Michael Johnson's 26-fight experience advantage (28 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Michael Johnson for the expected result. Had Darrius Flowers pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Darrius Flowers | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 963 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Darrius Flowers | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 965 | 1 212 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Michael Johnson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Darrius Flowers | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 33 | 61 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 64 | 112 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 52 | 80 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 951 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Michael Johnson controlled the striking exchanges with 80 vs 52 total strikes, 61 vs 33 significant strikes. Michael Johnson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Darrius Flowers | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:43 | 6:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 883 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Michael Johnson controlled Darrius Flowers on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 6:02 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Darrius Flowers | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 197 | 267 |
| Activity ELO | 977 | 1 155 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +16 |
Michael Johnson demonstrated standard activity with 267 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Michael Johnson capitalized on this activity level, while Darrius Flowers's 197-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Darrius Flowers | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 966 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Michael Johnson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Darrius Flowers is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Darrius Flowers | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 963 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.