July 5, 2013
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dave Herman | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -11 | 11 |
| Experience ELO | 929 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Gabriel Gonzaga's 11-fight experience advantage (16 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gabriel Gonzaga for the expected result. Had Dave Herman pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dave Herman | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 949 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dave Herman | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:17 | 0:17 |
| Win Type ELO | 995 | 1 275 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +58 |
Gabriel Gonzaga secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:17 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | Dave Herman | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 3 | 3 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 3 | 5 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 842 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -62 | +62 |
Gabriel Gonzaga controlled the striking exchanges, including 1 devastating knockdown. Gabriel Gonzaga capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dave Herman | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 909 | 1 247 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Dave Herman | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 266 | 84 |
| Activity ELO | 964 | 1 142 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +42 |
Gabriel Gonzaga demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 84 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Gabriel Gonzaga capitalized on this activity level, while Dave Herman's 266-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dave Herman | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 954 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +17 |
Gabriel Gonzaga started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dave Herman is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dave Herman | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 948 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.