May 25, 2012
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dave Herman | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 966 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Roy Nelson's 4-fight experience advantage (7 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Roy Nelson for the expected result. Had Dave Herman pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dave Herman | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 981 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dave Herman | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:51 | 0:51 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 033 | 1 264 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +71 |
Roy Nelson secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:51 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | Dave Herman | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 8 | 4 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 3 | 3 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 934 | 1 159 |
| ELO Change | -58 | +58 |
Roy Nelson controlled the striking exchanges with 50.0% vs 37.5% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Roy Nelson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dave Herman | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 981 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Dave Herman | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 101 | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 993 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +42 |
Roy Nelson demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Roy Nelson capitalized on this activity level, while Dave Herman's 101-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dave Herman | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 985 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Roy Nelson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dave Herman is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dave Herman | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

