Dave Herman vs Roy Nelson

May 25, 2012

Heavyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

982
(-26)
Dave Herman
Winner: Roy Nelson
KO/TKO
Round 1 • 0:51

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Dave Herman-26
Roy Nelson+35
1098
(+35)
Roy Nelson

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Dave Herman: -29Roy Nelson: +29

Performance Statistics

MetricDave HermanRoy Nelson
Total UFC Fights37
Experience Gap-44
Experience ELO9661 055
ELO Change-29+29
💡

What Happened

Roy Nelson's 4-fight experience advantage (7 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Roy Nelson for the expected result. Had Dave Herman pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Dave Herman: -21Roy Nelson: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricDave HermanRoy Nelson
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9811 030
ELO Change-21+21
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Dave Herman: -27Roy Nelson: +71

Performance Statistics

MetricDave HermanRoy Nelson
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round11
Time of Finish0:510:51
Win Type ELO1 0331 264
ELO Change-27+71
💡

What Happened

Roy Nelson secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:51 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Dave Herman: -58Roy Nelson: +58

Performance Statistics

MetricDave HermanRoy Nelson
Significant Strikes Landed32
Significant Strikes Attempted84
Total Strikes Landed33
Knockdowns Scored01
Striking ELO9341 159
ELO Change-58+58
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What Happened

Roy Nelson controlled the striking exchanges with 50.0% vs 37.5% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Roy Nelson capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Dave Herman: -17Roy Nelson: +17

Performance Statistics

MetricDave HermanRoy Nelson
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted00
Ground Control Time0:000:02
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO9811 083
ELO Change-17+17
💡

What Happened

Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Dave Herman: -17Roy Nelson: +42

Performance Statistics

MetricDave HermanRoy Nelson
Days Since Last Fight101112
Activity ELO9931 120
ELO Change-17+42
💡

What Happened

Roy Nelson demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Roy Nelson capitalized on this activity level, while Dave Herman's 101-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Dave Herman: -20Roy Nelson: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricDave HermanRoy Nelson
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO9851 042
ELO Change-20+22
💡

What Happened

Roy Nelson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dave Herman is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Dave Herman: -21Roy Nelson: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricDave HermanRoy Nelson
Weight ClassHeavyweightHeavyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9811 028
ELO Change-21+21
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.