February 14, 2012
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dave Herman | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 995 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Stefan Struve's 8-fight experience advantage (10 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Stefan Struve for the expected result. Had Dave Herman pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dave Herman | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 002 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dave Herman | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:52 | 3:52 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 060 | 1 278 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +54 |
Stefan Struve gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Dave Herman | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 51 | 47 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 74 | 81 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 51 | 82 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 992 | 1 145 |
| ELO Change | -106 | +106 |
Stefan Struve controlled the striking exchanges with 82 vs 51 total strikes, 58.0% vs 68.9% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Stefan Struve capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dave Herman | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:06 | 0:55 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 998 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | -61 | +61 |
Stefan Struve landed 1 knockdown followed by 8 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Dave Herman | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 250 | 138 |
| Activity ELO | 1 010 | 1 219 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +22 |
Stefan Struve demonstrated solid activity levels with 138 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Stefan Struve capitalized on this activity level, while Dave Herman's 250-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dave Herman | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 005 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +21 |
Stefan Struve extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dave Herman is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dave Herman | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 002 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

