April 17, 2009
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | David Bielkheden | Mark Bocek |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 986 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Mark Bocek's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Mark Bocek for the expected result. Had David Bielkheden pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | David Bielkheden | Mark Bocek |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 985 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | David Bielkheden | Mark Bocek |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:57 | 4:57 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 001 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +70 |
Mark Bocek earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:57, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | David Bielkheden | Mark Bocek |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 20 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 5 | 43 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 5 | 45 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 920 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -81 | +81 |
Mark Bocek controlled the striking exchanges with 45 vs 5 total strikes, 20 vs 4 significant strikes, 46.5% vs 80.0% accuracy. Mark Bocek capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | David Bielkheden | Mark Bocek |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:22 | 4:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 16 |
| Ground ELO | 982 | 1 271 |
| ELO Change | -100 | +100 |
Mark Bocek dominated David Bielkheden on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 4:00 of control time, 16 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | David Bielkheden | Mark Bocek |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 182 | 154 |
| Activity ELO | 998 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +36 |
Mark Bocek demonstrated solid activity levels with 154 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Mark Bocek capitalized on this activity level, while David Bielkheden's 182-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | David Bielkheden | Mark Bocek |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 990 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +25 |
Mark Bocek extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. David Bielkheden is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | David Bielkheden | Mark Bocek |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 984 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

