July 2, 2010
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | David Branch | Gerald Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 973 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Gerald Harris's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gerald Harris for the expected result. Had David Branch pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | David Branch | Gerald Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 981 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | David Branch | Gerald Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:35 | 2:35 |
| Win Type ELO | 975 | 1 202 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +49 |
Gerald Harris gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | David Branch | Gerald Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 10 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 39 | 37 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 40 | 11 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 970 | 1 193 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
David Branch controlled the striking through superior volume (40 vs 11 total strikes), significant strike advantage (20 vs 10), superior accuracy (51.3% vs 27.0%). However, since David Branch lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Gerald Harris's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | David Branch | Gerald Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:28 | 4:48 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 929 | 1 148 |
| ELO Change | -71 | +71 |
Gerald Harris dominated David Branch on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 4:48 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | David Branch | Gerald Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 94 |
| Activity ELO | 984 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +41 |
Gerald Harris demonstrated solid activity levels with 94 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Gerald Harris capitalized on this activity level, while David Branch's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | David Branch | Gerald Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 982 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +24 |
Gerald Harris extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. David Branch is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | David Branch | Gerald Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

