March 29, 2019
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | David Branch | Jack Hermansson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 075 | 1 200 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +27 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (9 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | David Branch | Jack Hermansson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 004 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | David Branch | Jack Hermansson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:49 | 0:49 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 162 | 1 400 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +50 |
Jack Hermansson locked in a lightning-fast Submission in 0:49 of round 1. This explosive first-minute submission earned substantial bonus rewards.
| Metric | David Branch | Jack Hermansson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 6 | 10 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 057 | 1 353 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Jack Hermansson slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 30.0% vs 16.7% accuracy. Jack Hermansson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | David Branch | Jack Hermansson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:04 | 0:10 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 173 | 1 349 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | David Branch | Jack Hermansson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 105 |
| Activity ELO | 1 102 | 1 192 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +49 |
Jack Hermansson demonstrated solid activity levels with 105 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jack Hermansson capitalized on this activity level, while David Branch's 147-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | David Branch | Jack Hermansson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 022 | 1 112 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +23 |
Jack Hermansson extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. David Branch is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | David Branch | Jack Hermansson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 000 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.