September 15, 2017
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | David Branch | Luke Rockhold |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 067 | 1 311 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
Luke Rockhold's 2-fight experience advantage (8 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Luke Rockhold for the expected result. Had David Branch pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | David Branch | Luke Rockhold |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 021 | 1 194 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | David Branch | Luke Rockhold |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:05 | 4:05 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 075 | 1 530 |
| ELO Change | -6 | +13 |
Luke Rockhold gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | David Branch | Luke Rockhold |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 58 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 56 | 85 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 51 | 68 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 102 | 1 401 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Luke Rockhold controlled the striking exchanges with 58 vs 25 significant strikes, 68.2% vs 44.6% accuracy. Luke Rockhold capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | David Branch | Luke Rockhold |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:18 | 3:42 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 34 |
| Ground ELO | 1 198 | 1 486 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Luke Rockhold controlled David Branch on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 3:42 of control time, 34 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | David Branch | Luke Rockhold |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 469 |
| Activity ELO | 1 114 | 1 250 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +13 |
Luke Rockhold demonstrated extended layoff with 469 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Luke Rockhold capitalized on this activity level, while David Branch's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | David Branch | Luke Rockhold |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 035 | 1 193 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +15 |
Luke Rockhold started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. David Branch is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | David Branch | Luke Rockhold |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 016 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.