March 2, 2011
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | David Branch | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 029 | 1 133 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Rousimar Palhares's 3-fight experience advantage (7 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rousimar Palhares for the expected result. Had David Branch pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | David Branch | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 008 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | David Branch | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:44 | 1:44 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 064 | 1 273 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +40 |
Rousimar Palhares earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:44, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. David Branch was submitted.
| Metric | David Branch | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 23 | 3 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 17 | 4 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 072 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
David Branch controlled the striking through superior accuracy (26.1% vs 66.7%). However, since David Branch lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Rousimar Palhares's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | David Branch | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:19 | 0:26 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 131 | 1 200 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Rousimar Palhares edged out David Branch on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:26 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | David Branch | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 89 | 170 |
| Activity ELO | 1 106 | 1 156 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +38 |
Rousimar Palhares demonstrated solid activity levels with 170 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rousimar Palhares capitalized on this activity level, while David Branch's 89-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | David Branch | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 017 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Rousimar Palhares started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. David Branch is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | David Branch | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 007 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

