April 20, 2018
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | David Branch | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 129 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | +62 | -42 |
David Branch overcame a 7-fight experience disadvantage (7 vs 14 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Thiago Santos.
| Metric | David Branch | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 047 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | David Branch | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:30 | 2:30 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 245 | 1 376 |
| ELO Change | +170 | -75 |
David Branch earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:30, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | David Branch | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 14 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 15 | 29 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 5 | 14 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 255 | 1 354 |
| ELO Change | +153 | -153 |
Thiago Santos controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (14 vs 5), superior accuracy (48.3% vs 33.3%). However, since Thiago Santos lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. David Branch's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | David Branch | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 256 | 1 177 |
| ELO Change | +58 | -58 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | David Branch | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 217 | 77 |
| Activity ELO | 1 150 | 1 217 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -29 |
David Branch demonstrated standard activity with 217 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, David Branch capitalized on this activity level, while Thiago Santos's 77-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | David Branch | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 065 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -27 |
David Branch started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Thiago Santos is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | David Branch | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 042 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

