David Branch vs Thiago Santos

April 20, 2018

Middleweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1149
(+70)
David Branch
Winner: David Branch
KO/TKO
Round 1 • 2:30

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

David Branch+70
Thiago Santos-55
1193
(-55)
Thiago Santos

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
David Branch: +62Thiago Santos: -42

Performance Statistics

MetricDavid BranchThiago Santos
Total UFC Fights714
Experience Gap-77
Experience ELO1 1291 150
ELO Change+62-42
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What Happened

David Branch overcame a 7-fight experience disadvantage (7 vs 14 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Thiago Santos.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
David Branch: +26Thiago Santos: -26

Performance Statistics

MetricDavid BranchThiago Santos
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0471 078
ELO Change+26-26
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
David Branch: +170Thiago Santos: -75

Performance Statistics

MetricDavid BranchThiago Santos
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round11
Time of Finish2:302:30
Win Type ELO1 2451 376
ELO Change+170-75
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What Happened

David Branch earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:30, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
David Branch: +153Thiago Santos: -153

Performance Statistics

MetricDavid BranchThiago Santos
Significant Strikes Landed514
Significant Strikes Attempted1529
Total Strikes Landed514
Knockdowns Scored10
Striking ELO1 2551 354
ELO Change+153-153
💡

What Happened

Thiago Santos controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (14 vs 5), superior accuracy (48.3% vs 33.3%). However, since Thiago Santos lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. David Branch's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
David Branch: +58Thiago Santos: -58

Performance Statistics

MetricDavid BranchThiago Santos
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted10
Ground Control Time0:020:00
Ground Strikes Landed40
Ground ELO1 2561 177
ELO Change+58-58
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What Happened

Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
David Branch: +36Thiago Santos: -29

Performance Statistics

MetricDavid BranchThiago Santos
Days Since Last Fight21777
Activity ELO1 1501 217
ELO Change+36-29
💡

What Happened

David Branch demonstrated standard activity with 217 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, David Branch capitalized on this activity level, while Thiago Santos's 77-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
David Branch: +30Thiago Santos: -27

Performance Statistics

MetricDavid BranchThiago Santos
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 0651 115
ELO Change+30-27
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What Happened

David Branch started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Thiago Santos is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
David Branch: +26Thiago Santos: -26

Performance Statistics

MetricDavid BranchThiago Santos
Weight ClassMiddleweightMiddleweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0421 078
ELO Change+26-26
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.