May 21, 2021
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | David Dvorak | Juancamilo Ronderos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 123 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
David Dvorak's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding David Dvorak for the expected result. Had Juancamilo Ronderos pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | David Dvorak | Juancamilo Ronderos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 060 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | David Dvorak | Juancamilo Ronderos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:18 | 2:18 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 138 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -32 |
David Dvorak earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:18, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | David Dvorak | Juancamilo Ronderos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 11 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 28 | 32 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 9 | 12 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 078 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Juancamilo Ronderos lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. David Dvorak's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | David Dvorak | Juancamilo Ronderos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:23 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 080 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | David Dvorak | Juancamilo Ronderos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 245 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 071 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -18 |
David Dvorak demonstrated standard activity with 245 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, David Dvorak capitalized on this activity level, while Juancamilo Ronderos's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | David Dvorak | Juancamilo Ronderos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 071 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -18 |
David Dvorak extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Juancamilo Ronderos is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | David Dvorak | Juancamilo Ronderos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 060 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

