March 25, 2022
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | David Dvorak | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 092 | 1 164 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Matheus Nicolau's 3-fight experience advantage (7 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matheus Nicolau for the expected result. Had David Dvorak pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | David Dvorak | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 040 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | David Dvorak | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 096 | 1 178 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Matheus Nicolau earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | David Dvorak | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 39 | 36 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 110 | 81 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 60 | 46 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 044 | 1 238 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since David Dvorak lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Matheus Nicolau's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | David Dvorak | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:25 | 0:48 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 065 | 1 194 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Matheus Nicolau landed 1 knockdown followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | David Dvorak | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 309 | 169 |
| Activity ELO | 1 052 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +33 |
Matheus Nicolau demonstrated solid activity levels with 169 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matheus Nicolau capitalized on this activity level, while David Dvorak's 309-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | David Dvorak | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 051 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +26 |
Matheus Nicolau extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. David Dvorak is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | David Dvorak | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 040 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.