April 20, 2007
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | David Heath | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 021 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +32 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | David Heath | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 019 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | David Heath | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 036 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Lyoto Machida earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | David Heath | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 8 | 67 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 46 | 101 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 20 | 80 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 964 | 1 184 |
| ELO Change | -87 | +87 |
Lyoto Machida dominated the striking exchanges with 80 vs 20 total strikes, 67 vs 8 significant strikes, 66.3% vs 17.4% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Lyoto Machida capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | David Heath | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 2:37 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 18 |
| Ground ELO | 1 074 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | -67 | +67 |
Lyoto Machida controlled David Heath on the ground with 2:37 of control time, 18 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | David Heath | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 129 | 77 |
| Activity ELO | 1 046 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +71 |
Lyoto Machida demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 77 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Lyoto Machida capitalized on this activity level, while David Heath's 129-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | David Heath | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 025 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +27 |
Lyoto Machida extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. David Heath is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | David Heath | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 019 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

