August 24, 2007
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | David Heath | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 995 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Renato Sobral's 6-fight experience advantage (10 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Renato Sobral for the expected result. Had David Heath pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | David Heath | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 000 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | David Heath | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:30 | 3:30 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 006 | 1 187 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +46 |
Renato Sobral earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:30, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. David Heath was submitted.
| Metric | David Heath | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 60 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 11 | 95 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 33 | 126 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 894 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -70 | +70 |
Renato Sobral dominated the striking exchanges with 126 vs 33 total strikes, 60 vs 6 significant strikes, 63.2% vs 54.5% accuracy. Renato Sobral capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | David Heath | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:24 | 5:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 57 |
| Ground ELO | 975 | 1 263 |
| ELO Change | -99 | +99 |
Renato Sobral dominated David Heath on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 5:03 of control time, 57 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | David Heath | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 175 |
| Activity ELO | 1 027 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +33 |
Renato Sobral demonstrated solid activity levels with 175 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Renato Sobral capitalized on this activity level, while David Heath's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | David Heath | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 006 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Renato Sobral started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. David Heath is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | David Heath | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 999 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

