July 5, 2013
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | David Mitchell | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 978 | 1 200 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Mike Pierce's 8-fight experience advantage (12 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Mike Pierce for the expected result. Had David Mitchell pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | David Mitchell | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 970 | 1 123 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | David Mitchell | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:55 | 2:55 |
| Win Type ELO | 982 | 1 350 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +22 |
Mike Pierce gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | David Mitchell | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 17 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 44 | 41 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 81 | 25 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 966 | 1 344 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
David Mitchell controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (81 vs 25 total strikes). However, since David Mitchell lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Mike Pierce's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | David Mitchell | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:17 | 4:40 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 934 | 1 402 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
Mike Pierce landed 1 knockdown followed by 4 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | David Mitchell | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 161 | 204 |
| Activity ELO | 980 | 1 273 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +9 |
Mike Pierce demonstrated standard activity with 204 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Mike Pierce capitalized on this activity level, while David Mitchell's 161-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | David Mitchell | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 975 | 1 154 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +18 |
Mike Pierce extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. David Mitchell is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | David Mitchell | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 970 | 1 122 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

