August 26, 2011
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | David Mitchell | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 959 | 1 131 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Paulo Thiago's 5-fight experience advantage (7 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Paulo Thiago for the expected result. Had David Mitchell pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | David Mitchell | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 961 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | David Mitchell | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 940 | 1 197 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Paulo Thiago earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | David Mitchell | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 23 | 19 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 120 | 69 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 62 | 30 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 950 | 1 177 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +10 |
David Mitchell controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (62 vs 30 total strikes). However, since David Mitchell lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Paulo Thiago's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | David Mitchell | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:37 | 4:55 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 851 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -48 | +48 |
Paulo Thiago controlled David Mitchell on the ground with 6 vs 0 takedowns, 4:55 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | David Mitchell | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 346 | 308 |
| Activity ELO | 966 | 1 139 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
Paulo Thiago demonstrated standard activity with 308 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Paulo Thiago capitalized on this activity level, while David Mitchell's 346-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | David Mitchell | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 962 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +19 |
Paulo Thiago started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. David Mitchell is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | David Mitchell | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 961 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.