May 6, 1999
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | David Roberts | Marcelo Mello |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | David Roberts | Marcelo Mello |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | David Roberts | Marcelo Mello |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:23 | 1:23 |
| Win Type ELO | 958 | 1 101 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +101 |
Marcelo Mello earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:23, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | David Roberts | Marcelo Mello |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 3 | 13 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 0 | 9 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 872 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | -128 | +128 |
Marcelo Mello slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 7 vs 0 significant strikes, 53.8% vs 0.0% accuracy. Marcelo Mello capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | David Roberts | Marcelo Mello |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | -- | -- |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 941 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -59 | +59 |
Marcelo Mello controlled David Roberts on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 6 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | David Roberts | Marcelo Mello |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Marcelo Mello demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Marcelo Mello capitalized on this activity level, while David Roberts's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | David Roberts | Marcelo Mello |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Marcelo Mello started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. David Roberts is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | David Roberts | Marcelo Mello |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.