November 23, 2018
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | David Zawada | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 954 | 1 140 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Li Jingliang's 9-fight experience advantage (11 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Li Jingliang for the expected result. Had David Zawada pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | David Zawada | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 965 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | David Zawada | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:07 | 4:07 |
| Win Type ELO | 975 | 1 247 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +38 |
Li Jingliang gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | David Zawada | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 73 | 89 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 184 | 222 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 74 | 97 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 922 | 1 171 |
| ELO Change | -57 | +57 |
Li Jingliang controlled the striking exchanges with 97 vs 74 total strikes, 89 vs 73 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Li Jingliang capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | David Zawada | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:49 | 1:16 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 911 | 1 118 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Li Jingliang landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | David Zawada | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 155 |
| Activity ELO | 971 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +23 |
Li Jingliang demonstrated solid activity levels with 155 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Li Jingliang capitalized on this activity level, while David Zawada's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | David Zawada | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 967 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +18 |
Li Jingliang extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. David Zawada is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | David Zawada | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 965 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.