July 26, 2013
UFC Flyweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Demetrious Johnson | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 146 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Demetrious Johnson's 5-fight experience advantage (8 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Demetrious Johnson for the expected result. Had John Moraga pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Demetrious Johnson | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 204 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -14 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Demetrious Johnson captured the UFC Flyweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Demetrious Johnson | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 3:43 | 3:43 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 207 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | +66 | -44 |
Demetrious Johnson earned a finish with a Submission in round 5 at 3:43, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. John Moraga was submitted.
| Metric | Demetrious Johnson | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 67 | 32 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 95 | 76 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 112 | 53 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 233 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Demetrious Johnson dominated the striking exchanges with 112 vs 53 total strikes, 67 vs 32 significant strikes, 70.5% vs 42.1% accuracy. Demetrious Johnson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Demetrious Johnson | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 12 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 12 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 13:36 | 1:57 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 32 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 379 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +164 | -164 |
Demetrious Johnson dominated John Moraga on the ground with 12 vs 1 takedowns, 13:36 of control time, 32 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Demetrious Johnson | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 182 | 210 |
| Activity ELO | 1 198 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -15 |
Demetrious Johnson demonstrated standard activity with 182 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Demetrious Johnson capitalized on this activity level, while John Moraga's 210-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Demetrious Johnson | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 125 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -18 |
Demetrious Johnson extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. John Moraga is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Demetrious Johnson | John Moraga |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 101 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.