December 11, 2015
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Demian Maia | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 22 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 16 | -16 |
| Experience ELO | 1 271 | 1 114 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Demian Maia's 16-fight experience advantage (22 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Demian Maia for the expected result. Had Gunnar Nelson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 172 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 475 | 1 229 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Demian Maia earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 47 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 58 | 4 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 193 | 7 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 438 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -46 |
Demian Maia dominated the striking exchanges with 193 vs 7 total strikes, 47 vs 2 significant strikes, 81.0% vs 50.0% accuracy. Demian Maia capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 10:58 | 2:14 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 40 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 607 | 1 242 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Demian Maia dominated Gunnar Nelson on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 10:58 of control time, 40 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 134 | 155 |
| Activity ELO | 1 391 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -7 |
Demian Maia demonstrated solid activity levels with 134 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Demian Maia capitalized on this activity level, while Gunnar Nelson's 155-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 234 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -13 |
Demian Maia extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gunnar Nelson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 168 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.