February 1, 2019
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Demian Maia | Lyman Good |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 29 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 25 | -25 |
| Experience ELO | 1 260 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Demian Maia's 25-fight experience advantage (29 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Demian Maia for the expected result. Had Lyman Good pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Lyman Good |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 165 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Lyman Good |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:38 | 2:38 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 460 | 1 205 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -20 |
Demian Maia earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:38, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Lyman Good |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 1 | 2 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 8 | 0 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 379 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Demian Maia slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Demian Maia capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Lyman Good |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:11 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 508 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
Demian Maia controlled Lyman Good on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 2:11 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Lyman Good |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 260 | 91 |
| Activity ELO | 1 383 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +6 | -5 |
Demian Maia demonstrated standard activity with 260 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Demian Maia capitalized on this activity level, while Lyman Good's 91-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Lyman Good |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 264 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -9 |
Demian Maia started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Lyman Good is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Lyman Good |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 156 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.