Demian Maia vs Matt Brown

May 13, 2016

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1378
(+33)
Demian Maia
Winner: Demian Maia
Submission
Round 3 • 4:31

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Demian Maia+33
Matt Brown-28
1238
(-28)
Matt Brown

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Demian Maia: +24Matt Brown: -24

Performance Statistics

MetricDemian MaiaMatt Brown
Total UFC Fights2321
Experience Gap2-2
Experience ELO1 2951 157
ELO Change+24-24
💡

What Happened

Demian Maia's 2-fight experience advantage (23 vs 21 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Demian Maia for the expected result. Had Matt Brown pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Demian Maia: +17Matt Brown: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricDemian MaiaMatt Brown
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 1891 096
ELO Change+17-17
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Demian Maia: +59Matt Brown: -39

Performance Statistics

MetricDemian MaiaMatt Brown
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round33
Time of Finish4:314:31
Win Type ELO1 5341 415
ELO Change+59-39
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What Happened

Demian Maia earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 4:31, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Matt Brown was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Demian Maia: +47Matt Brown: -47

Performance Statistics

MetricDemian MaiaMatt Brown
Significant Strikes Landed1710
Significant Strikes Attempted2023
Total Strikes Landed9129
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 4851 414
ELO Change+47-47
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What Happened

Demian Maia dominated the striking exchanges with 91 vs 29 total strikes, 17 vs 10 significant strikes, 85.0% vs 43.5% accuracy. Demian Maia capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Demian Maia: +38Matt Brown: -38

Performance Statistics

MetricDemian MaiaMatt Brown
Takedowns Landed30
Takedowns Attempted100
Ground Control Time12:030:59
Ground Strikes Landed158
Ground ELO1 6451 247
ELO Change+38-38
💡

What Happened

Demian Maia dominated Matt Brown on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 12:03 of control time, 15 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Demian Maia: +29Matt Brown: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricDemian MaiaMatt Brown
Days Since Last Fight154308
Activity ELO1 4201 302
ELO Change+29-17
💡

What Happened

Demian Maia demonstrated solid activity levels with 154 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Demian Maia capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Brown's 308-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Demian Maia: +36Matt Brown: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricDemian MaiaMatt Brown
Win Streak50
Win Streak ELO1 2701 183
ELO Change+36-19
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What Happened

Demian Maia continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Matt Brown's now at 0.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Demian Maia: +17Matt Brown: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricDemian MaiaMatt Brown
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 1851 092
ELO Change+17-17
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.