May 13, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Demian Maia | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 23 | 21 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 295 | 1 157 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Demian Maia's 2-fight experience advantage (23 vs 21 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Demian Maia for the expected result. Had Matt Brown pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 189 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:31 | 4:31 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 534 | 1 415 |
| ELO Change | +59 | -39 |
Demian Maia earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 4:31, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Matt Brown was submitted.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 17 | 10 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 20 | 23 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 91 | 29 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 485 | 1 414 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -47 |
Demian Maia dominated the striking exchanges with 91 vs 29 total strikes, 17 vs 10 significant strikes, 85.0% vs 43.5% accuracy. Demian Maia capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 12:03 | 0:59 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 15 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 1 645 | 1 247 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Demian Maia dominated Matt Brown on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 12:03 of control time, 15 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 154 | 308 |
| Activity ELO | 1 420 | 1 302 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -17 |
Demian Maia demonstrated solid activity levels with 154 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Demian Maia capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Brown's 308-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 5 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 270 | 1 183 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -19 |
Demian Maia continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Matt Brown's now at 0.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 185 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

