August 28, 2009
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Demian Maia | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 155 | 1 213 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Nate Marquardt's 4-fight experience advantage (10 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nate Marquardt for the expected result. Had Demian Maia pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 079 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:21 | 0:21 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 294 | 1 501 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +95 |
Nate Marquardt secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:21 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 166 | 1 492 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Virtually no striking took place with only 1 total significant strikes exchanged. Both fighters immediately engaged in grappling, making striking analysis irrelevant to this fight.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 347 | 1 397 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 189 | 189 |
| Activity ELO | 1 188 | 1 241 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +26 |
Nate Marquardt demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Nate Marquardt capitalized on this activity level, while Demian Maia's 189-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 112 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +28 |
Nate Marquardt extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Demian Maia is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 078 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

