Demian Maia vs Nate Marquardt

August 28, 2009

Middleweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1177
(-27)
Demian Maia
Winner: Nate Marquardt
KO/TKO
Round 1 • 0:21

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Demian Maia-27
Nate Marquardt+35
1280
(+35)
Nate Marquardt

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Demian Maia: -32Nate Marquardt: +32

Performance Statistics

MetricDemian MaiaNate Marquardt
Total UFC Fights610
Experience Gap-44
Experience ELO1 1551 213
ELO Change-32+32
💡

What Happened

Nate Marquardt's 4-fight experience advantage (10 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nate Marquardt for the expected result. Had Demian Maia pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Demian Maia: -21Nate Marquardt: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricDemian MaiaNate Marquardt
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0791 124
ELO Change-21+21
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Demian Maia: -33Nate Marquardt: +95

Performance Statistics

MetricDemian MaiaNate Marquardt
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round11
Time of Finish0:210:21
Win Type ELO1 2941 501
ELO Change-33+95
💡

What Happened

Nate Marquardt secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:21 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Demian Maia: -40Nate Marquardt: +40

Performance Statistics

MetricDemian MaiaNate Marquardt
Significant Strikes Landed01
Significant Strikes Attempted21
Total Strikes Landed01
Knockdowns Scored01
Striking ELO1 1661 492
ELO Change-40+40
💡

What Happened

Virtually no striking took place with only 1 total significant strikes exchanged. Both fighters immediately engaged in grappling, making striking analysis irrelevant to this fight.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Demian Maia: -20Nate Marquardt: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricDemian MaiaNate Marquardt
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted00
Ground Control Time0:000:01
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO1 3471 397
ELO Change-20+20
💡

What Happened

Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Demian Maia: -21Nate Marquardt: +26

Performance Statistics

MetricDemian MaiaNate Marquardt
Days Since Last Fight189189
Activity ELO1 1881 241
ELO Change-21+26
💡

What Happened

Nate Marquardt demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Nate Marquardt capitalized on this activity level, while Demian Maia's 189-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Demian Maia: -22Nate Marquardt: +28

Performance Statistics

MetricDemian MaiaNate Marquardt
Win Streak03
Win Streak ELO1 1121 153
ELO Change-22+28
💡

What Happened

Nate Marquardt extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Demian Maia is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Demian Maia: -21Nate Marquardt: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricDemian MaiaNate Marquardt
Weight ClassMiddleweightMiddleweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0781 121
ELO Change-21+21
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.