October 12, 2012
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Demian Maia | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 211 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Demian Maia's 4-fight experience advantage (15 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Demian Maia for the expected result. Had Rick Story pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 128 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:30 | 2:30 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 402 | 1 203 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -28 |
Demian Maia earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:30, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 8 | 5 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 9 | 10 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 259 | 1 225 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Demian Maia slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Demian Maia capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:15 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 386 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | +158 | -158 |
Demian Maia dominated Rick Story on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 2:15 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 98 | 113 |
| Activity ELO | 1 314 | 1 217 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -19 |
Demian Maia demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Demian Maia capitalized on this activity level, while Rick Story's 113-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 170 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -22 |
Demian Maia extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rick Story is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Demian Maia | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 123 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.