August 18, 2023
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Denis Tiuliulin | Gregory Rodrigues |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 967 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Gregory Rodrigues's 3-fight experience advantage (7 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gregory Rodrigues for the expected result. Had Denis Tiuliulin pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Denis Tiuliulin | Gregory Rodrigues |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 964 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Denis Tiuliulin | Gregory Rodrigues |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:43 | 1:43 |
| Win Type ELO | 994 | 1 277 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +44 |
Gregory Rodrigues earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:43, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Denis Tiuliulin | Gregory Rodrigues |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 7 | 6 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 3 | 6 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 956 | 1 220 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Gregory Rodrigues slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 83.3% vs 28.6% accuracy. Gregory Rodrigues capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Denis Tiuliulin | Gregory Rodrigues |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:47 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 831 | 1 127 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Gregory Rodrigues controlled Denis Tiuliulin on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:47 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Denis Tiuliulin | Gregory Rodrigues |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 196 | 210 |
| Activity ELO | 992 | 1 148 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +17 |
Gregory Rodrigues demonstrated standard activity with 210 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Gregory Rodrigues capitalized on this activity level, while Denis Tiuliulin's 196-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Denis Tiuliulin | Gregory Rodrigues |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 969 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +19 |
Gregory Rodrigues started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Denis Tiuliulin is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Denis Tiuliulin | Gregory Rodrigues |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 964 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.