August 23, 2024
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dennis Buzukja | Francis Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 959 | 993 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +33 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (4 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Dennis Buzukja | Francis Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 962 | 998 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dennis Buzukja | Francis Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 020 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Francis Marshall receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Dennis Buzukja | Francis Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 66 | 57 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 145 | 150 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 76 | 82 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 918 | 970 |
| ELO Change | -66 | +66 |
Francis Marshall controlled the striking exchanges with 57 vs 66 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Francis Marshall capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dennis Buzukja | Francis Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:08 | 5:26 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 864 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | -69 | +69 |
Francis Marshall landed 1 knockdown followed by 1 ground strike. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Dennis Buzukja | Francis Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 378 |
| Activity ELO | 986 | 998 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +21 |
Francis Marshall demonstrated extended layoff with 378 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Francis Marshall capitalized on this activity level, while Dennis Buzukja's 147-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dennis Buzukja | Francis Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 965 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +24 |
Francis Marshall started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dennis Buzukja is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dennis Buzukja | Francis Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 962 | 998 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

