July 4, 2008
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dennis Siver | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 961 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Melvin Guillard's 3-fight experience advantage (7 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Melvin Guillard for the expected result. Had Dennis Siver pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dennis Siver | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 960 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dennis Siver | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:36 | 0:36 |
| Win Type ELO | 978 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +99 |
Melvin Guillard secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:36 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | Dennis Siver | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 10 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 1 | 15 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 0 | 10 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 873 | 1 260 |
| ELO Change | -164 | +164 |
Melvin Guillard dominated the striking exchanges with 10 vs 0 significant strikes, 66.7% vs 0.0% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Melvin Guillard capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dennis Siver | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:20 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 875 | 979 |
| ELO Change | -54 | +54 |
Melvin Guillard landed 2 knockdowns followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Dennis Siver | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 164 | 189 |
| Activity ELO | 985 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +23 |
Melvin Guillard demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Melvin Guillard capitalized on this activity level, while Dennis Siver's 164-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dennis Siver | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 962 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Melvin Guillard started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dennis Siver is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dennis Siver | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 960 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.