Dennis Siver vs Paul Kelly

November 13, 2009

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1091
(+57)
Dennis Siver
Winner: Dennis Siver
KO/TKO
Round 2 • 2:53

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Dennis Siver+57
Paul Kelly-49
1044
(-49)
Paul Kelly

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Dennis Siver: +38Paul Kelly: -38

Performance Statistics

MetricDennis SiverPaul Kelly
Total UFC Fights75
Experience Gap2-2
Experience ELO1 0651 061
ELO Change+38-38
💡

What Happened

Dennis Siver's 2-fight experience advantage (7 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Dennis Siver for the expected result. Had Paul Kelly pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Dennis Siver: +24Paul Kelly: -24

Performance Statistics

MetricDennis SiverPaul Kelly
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0281 022
ELO Change+24-24
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Dennis Siver: +84Paul Kelly: -41

Performance Statistics

MetricDennis SiverPaul Kelly
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round22
Time of Finish2:532:53
Win Type ELO1 2121 080
ELO Change+84-41
💡

What Happened

Dennis Siver gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Dennis Siver: +179Paul Kelly: -179

Performance Statistics

MetricDennis SiverPaul Kelly
Significant Strikes Landed3812
Significant Strikes Attempted16584
Total Strikes Landed4415
Knockdowns Scored20
Striking ELO1 211932
ELO Change+179-179
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What Happened

Dennis Siver dominated the striking exchanges with 44 vs 15 total strikes, 38 vs 12 significant strikes, 23.0% vs 14.3% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Dennis Siver capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Dennis Siver: +39Paul Kelly: -39

Performance Statistics

MetricDennis SiverPaul Kelly
Takedowns Landed01
Takedowns Attempted23
Ground Control Time0:260:57
Ground Strikes Landed20
Ground ELO1 0451 124
ELO Change+39-39
💡

What Happened

Dennis Siver landed 2 knockdowns followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Dennis Siver: +41Paul Kelly: -24

Performance Statistics

MetricDennis SiverPaul Kelly
Days Since Last Fight155155
Activity ELO1 0981 077
ELO Change+41-24
💡

What Happened

Dennis Siver demonstrated solid activity levels with 155 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Dennis Siver capitalized on this activity level, while Paul Kelly's 155-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Dennis Siver: +31Paul Kelly: -24

Performance Statistics

MetricDennis SiverPaul Kelly
Win Streak30
Win Streak ELO1 0431 033
ELO Change+31-24
💡

What Happened

Dennis Siver extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Paul Kelly is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Dennis Siver: +24Paul Kelly: -24

Performance Statistics

MetricDennis SiverPaul Kelly
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0281 022
ELO Change+24-24
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.