November 13, 2009
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dennis Siver | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 065 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Dennis Siver's 2-fight experience advantage (7 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Dennis Siver for the expected result. Had Paul Kelly pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dennis Siver | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 028 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dennis Siver | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:53 | 2:53 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 212 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | +84 | -41 |
Dennis Siver gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Dennis Siver | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 38 | 12 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 165 | 84 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 44 | 15 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 2 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 211 | 932 |
| ELO Change | +179 | -179 |
Dennis Siver dominated the striking exchanges with 44 vs 15 total strikes, 38 vs 12 significant strikes, 23.0% vs 14.3% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Dennis Siver capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dennis Siver | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:26 | 0:57 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 045 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -39 |
Dennis Siver landed 2 knockdowns followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Dennis Siver | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 155 | 155 |
| Activity ELO | 1 098 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -24 |
Dennis Siver demonstrated solid activity levels with 155 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Dennis Siver capitalized on this activity level, while Paul Kelly's 155-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dennis Siver | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 043 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -24 |
Dennis Siver extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Paul Kelly is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dennis Siver | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 028 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

