March 3, 2023
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Dricus Du Plessis |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 21 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 16 | -16 |
| Experience ELO | 1 260 | 1 330 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +72 |
Dricus Du Plessis overcame a 16-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 21 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Derek Brunson.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Dricus Du Plessis |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 130 | 1 116 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Dricus Du Plessis |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:59 | 4:59 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 453 | 1 459 |
| ELO Change | -62 | +128 |
Dricus Du Plessis gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Dricus Du Plessis |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 37 | 71 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 84 | 115 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 43 | 84 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 223 | 1 416 |
| ELO Change | -110 | +110 |
Dricus Du Plessis controlled the striking exchanges with 84 vs 43 total strikes, 71 vs 37 significant strikes, 61.7% vs 44.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Dricus Du Plessis capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Dricus Du Plessis |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:30 | 1:25 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 15 |
| Ground ELO | 1 404 | 1 386 |
| ELO Change | -63 | +63 |
Dricus Du Plessis edged out Derek Brunson on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:25 of control time, 15 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Dricus Du Plessis |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 385 | 84 |
| Activity ELO | 1 297 | 1 231 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +95 |
Dricus Du Plessis demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 84 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Dricus Du Plessis capitalized on this activity level, while Derek Brunson's 385-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Dricus Du Plessis |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 5 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 202 | 1 173 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +52 |
Dricus Du Plessis continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Derek Brunson's now at 0.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Dricus Du Plessis |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 123 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.