July 31, 2020
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Edmen Shahbazyan |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 17 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 12 | -12 |
| Experience ELO | 1 290 | 1 171 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Derek Brunson's 12-fight experience advantage (17 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Derek Brunson for the expected result. Had Edmen Shahbazyan pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Edmen Shahbazyan |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 146 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Edmen Shahbazyan |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 0:26 | 0:26 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 505 | 1 284 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -25 |
Derek Brunson gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Edmen Shahbazyan |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 88 | 35 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 145 | 72 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 107 | 38 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 309 | 1 254 |
| ELO Change | +116 | -116 |
Derek Brunson dominated the striking exchanges with 107 vs 38 total strikes, 88 vs 35 significant strikes, 60.7% vs 48.6% accuracy. Derek Brunson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Edmen Shahbazyan |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:06 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 26 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 410 | 1 174 |
| ELO Change | +54 | -54 |
Derek Brunson dominated Edmen Shahbazyan on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 3:06 of control time, 26 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Edmen Shahbazyan |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 350 | 273 |
| Activity ELO | 1 293 | 1 154 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
Derek Brunson demonstrated standard activity with 350 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Derek Brunson capitalized on this activity level, while Edmen Shahbazyan's 273-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Edmen Shahbazyan |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 201 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -17 |
Derek Brunson extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Edmen Shahbazyan is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Edmen Shahbazyan |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 138 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.