May 3, 2019
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Elias Theodorou |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 238 | 1 163 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Derek Brunson's 4-fight experience advantage (15 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Derek Brunson for the expected result. Had Elias Theodorou pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Elias Theodorou |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 111 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Elias Theodorou |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 442 | 1 236 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Derek Brunson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Elias Theodorou |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 56 | 65 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 94 | 170 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 65 | 87 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 162 | 1 244 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Elias Theodorou controlled the striking through superior volume (87 vs 65 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (65 vs 56), superior accuracy (38.2% vs 59.6%). However, since Elias Theodorou lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Derek Brunson's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Elias Theodorou |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:17 | 0:10 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 329 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | +76 | -76 |
Derek Brunson dominated Elias Theodorou on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 3:17 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Elias Theodorou |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 182 | 147 |
| Activity ELO | 1 251 | 1 184 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -20 |
Derek Brunson demonstrated standard activity with 182 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Derek Brunson capitalized on this activity level, while Elias Theodorou's 147-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Elias Theodorou |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 161 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -21 |
Derek Brunson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Elias Theodorou is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Elias Theodorou |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 101 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

