August 16, 2019
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Ian Heinisch |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 13 | -13 |
| Experience ELO | 1 265 | 1 161 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Derek Brunson's 13-fight experience advantage (16 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Derek Brunson for the expected result. Had Ian Heinisch pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Ian Heinisch |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 128 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Ian Heinisch |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 454 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
Derek Brunson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Ian Heinisch |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 81 | 58 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 185 | 143 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 102 | 65 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 193 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Derek Brunson controlled the striking exchanges with 102 vs 65 total strikes, 81 vs 58 significant strikes. Derek Brunson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Ian Heinisch |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:12 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 356 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Derek Brunson controlled Ian Heinisch on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 2:12 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Ian Heinisch |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 105 | 91 |
| Activity ELO | 1 278 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -11 |
Derek Brunson demonstrated solid activity levels with 105 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Derek Brunson capitalized on this activity level, while Ian Heinisch's 91-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Ian Heinisch |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 179 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -15 |
Derek Brunson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ian Heinisch is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Ian Heinisch |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 119 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.