January 26, 2018
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Jacare Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 245 | 1 326 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +36 |
Jacare Souza overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (10 vs 13 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Derek Brunson.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Jacare Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 112 | 1 139 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Jacare Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:50 | 3:50 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 491 | 1 589 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +105 |
Jacare Souza earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:50, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Jacare Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 8 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 34 | 21 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 8 | 9 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 411 | 1 510 |
| ELO Change | -121 | +121 |
Jacare Souza controlled the striking exchanges with 42.9% vs 23.5% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Jacare Souza capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Jacare Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 285 | 1 502 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Jacare Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 92 | 288 |
| Activity ELO | 1 251 | 1 265 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Jacare Souza demonstrated standard activity with 288 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Jacare Souza capitalized on this activity level, while Derek Brunson's 92-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Jacare Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 163 | 1 189 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Jacare Souza started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Derek Brunson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Jacare Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 101 | 1 135 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.