March 19, 2021
Middleweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 18 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 311 | 1 154 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Derek Brunson's 7-fight experience advantage (18 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Derek Brunson for the expected result. Had Kevin Holland pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 165 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 537 | 1 392 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Derek Brunson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 43 | 36 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 93 | 74 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 226 | 190 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 346 | 1 432 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Derek Brunson controlled the striking exchanges with 226 vs 190 total strikes, 43 vs 36 significant strikes. Derek Brunson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 6 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 12 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 16:55 | 1:47 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 19 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 482 | 1 210 |
| ELO Change | +72 | -72 |
Derek Brunson dominated Kevin Holland on the ground with 6 vs 1 takedowns, 16:55 of control time, 19 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 232 | 98 |
| Activity ELO | 1 326 | 1 360 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -27 |
Derek Brunson demonstrated standard activity with 232 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Derek Brunson capitalized on this activity level, while Kevin Holland's 98-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 228 | 1 151 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -19 |
Derek Brunson extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kevin Holland is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 158 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.