August 29, 2014
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 140 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -20 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (4 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 041 | 957 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 135 | 955 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Derek Brunson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 12 | 20 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 30 | 40 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 98 | 32 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 078 | 897 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Derek Brunson dominated the striking exchanges with 98 vs 32 total strikes, 12 vs 20 significant strikes, 40.0% vs 50.0% accuracy. Derek Brunson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 12 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 10:42 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 159 | 887 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -57 |
Derek Brunson dominated Lorenz Larkin on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 10:42 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 227 | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 1 056 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -19 |
Derek Brunson demonstrated standard activity with 227 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Derek Brunson capitalized on this activity level, while Lorenz Larkin's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 051 | 965 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -18 |
Derek Brunson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Lorenz Larkin is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 041 | 957 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.