October 27, 2017
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 22 |
| Experience Gap | -10 | 10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 275 | 1 186 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -31 |
Derek Brunson overcame a 10-fight experience disadvantage (12 vs 22 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Lyoto Machida.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 134 | 1 145 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:30 | 2:30 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 540 | 1 391 |
| ELO Change | +89 | -40 |
Derek Brunson earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:30, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 24 | 10 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 10 | 3 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 532 | 1 308 |
| ELO Change | +128 | -128 |
Derek Brunson controlled the striking exchanges with 10 vs 3 significant strikes, 41.7% vs 30.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Derek Brunson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:03 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 316 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Derek Brunson landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 140 | 854 |
| Activity ELO | 1 274 | 1 303 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -27 |
Derek Brunson demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Derek Brunson capitalized on this activity level, while Lyoto Machida's 854-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 185 | 1 181 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -24 |
Derek Brunson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Lyoto Machida is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 123 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.