February 20, 2016
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 229 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -11 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (7 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 100 | 991 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:38 | 2:38 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 429 | 1 165 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -20 |
Derek Brunson earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:38, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 23 | 0 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 51 | 13 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 27 | 0 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 426 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Derek Brunson controlled the striking exchanges with 27 vs 0 total strikes, 23 vs 0 significant strikes, 45.1% vs 0.0% accuracy. Derek Brunson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:42 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 21 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 289 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Derek Brunson controlled Roan Carneiro on the ground with 0:42 of control time, 21 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 198 | 358 |
| Activity ELO | 1 155 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -15 |
Derek Brunson demonstrated standard activity with 198 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Derek Brunson capitalized on this activity level, while Roan Carneiro's 358-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 127 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -16 |
Derek Brunson extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Roan Carneiro is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Roan Carneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 100 | 991 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.