August 7, 2015
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 213 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (6 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 084 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:19 | 2:19 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 383 | 1 239 |
| ELO Change | +91 | -41 |
Derek Brunson earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:19, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 27 | 4 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 45 | 11 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 53 | 6 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 389 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | +84 | -84 |
Derek Brunson controlled the striking exchanges with 53 vs 6 total strikes, 27 vs 4 significant strikes, 60.0% vs 36.4% accuracy. Derek Brunson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:32 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 259 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Derek Brunson controlled Sam Alvey on the ground with 1:32 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 189 | 91 |
| Activity ELO | 1 137 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -25 |
Derek Brunson demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Derek Brunson capitalized on this activity level, while Sam Alvey's 91-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 105 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -20 |
Derek Brunson extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Sam Alvey is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Derek Brunson | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 084 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.